Although gun violence tends to worsen with the summer heat, Philadelphia is enjoying its most peaceful season in nearly a decade.

As of Aug. 11, 440 fewer people have been shot than in the same period last year, a 39.2% drop, according to data from the city comptroller’s office. Homicides are also plummeting. As of Aug. 13, there have been 167 murders in 2024, a 37% drop from 265 in the same period last year, according to data from the Philadelphia Police Department. The last time the number of murders was this low in the second week of August was in 2015.

(This story was originally published by The tracea nonprofit newsroom covering gun violence in America. Subscribe to his newsletters here.)

Gun deaths are down nationally, with the exception of people under 18. But in Philadelphia, young people are also affected. Through August 11, there were 30 fewer shootings of teens and children than during the same period last year, from 120 to 90.

The sharp drop in shootings this year follows last year’s decline, which saw 410 homicides, down 20% from 514 in 2022. Amid the COVID crisis and social unrest sparked by the police killing of George Floyd, Philadelphia recorded a record 563 homicides in 2021.

The downward trend, however, is little comfort to those whose loved ones have been murdered in recent years and whose killers remain missing, said Stanley Crawford, who in 2020 helped found the Families of Unsolved Murders project.

According to the Philadelphia Police Department’s unsolved murders website, there have been 2,045 unsolved murders and 425 solved murders since 2014.

“We shouldn’t rest on our laurels and pat ourselves on the back when so much murder and mayhem continues to occur,” said Crawford, whose son was fatally shot in 2018 by a man who was arrested and charged with four separate murders. “Unsolved murders perpetuate other murders. Unsolved shootings perpetuate other shootings.”

Kingsessing fort

Amid intermittent heavy rains on August 8, neighbors, police officers and politicians mingled and enjoyed a picnic in the 6000 block of Trinity Street in Kingsessing, a predominantly black, working-class community in Southwest Philadelphia.

While those gathered were joyfully participating in National Night Out, an annual event to strengthen police-community ties, past attacks in the neighborhood have left some wary of the city’s improving gun violence statistics. On July 4, two blocks away, a mass drive-by shooting left one person dead and eight injured. A year earlier, on July 2 and 3, a gunman wearing a bulletproof vest and brandishing a rifle and an AR-15-style pistol (both homemade ghost guns) stalked strangers in the neighborhood, killing five people and wounding two.

“I still hear gunshots. It’s getting a little better, but it’s still chaos,” said Lois Chittick, 70, who has lived in the neighborhood for 50 years and serves on the 60th and Trinity Street Neighborhood Committee. “Honestly, the police are trying hard, and the mayor is trying hard, but what can they do? How many places can they be?”

Gun deaths are down nationally, with the exception of people under 18. But in Philadelphia, young people are also affected. Through August 11, there were 30 fewer shootings of teens and children than during the same period last year, from 120 to 90.

Marsha Wall, 72, the neighborhood captain who has also lived on Trinity Street for 50 years, said she and her neighbors have worked hard to build relationships with police and city officials. They have also sought to make their corner of Kingsessing as safe and enjoyable as possible. The sharp decline in shootings, Wall said, fills her with optimism. “This is a unified neighborhood in what we do. We try to keep it clean and we’re involved in what’s going on in the community,” she said from her porch, as rain drenched the celebrants while police officers, who doubled as DJs, kept the music playing from a porch several houses away.

“Don’t get me wrong, I could have moved many times. But I like this neighborhood, my home is comfortable,” Wall said. “Why should I start over somewhere else?”

Capt. Joseph Green, who heads the 12th Police District, home to more than 75,000 residents, including those on Trinity Street, said he has recently gained a new perspective on community safety.

“I was at Finnegan Recreation Center yesterday talking to kids about what we do as police officers,” he said. “We asked them, ‘What does a safe neighborhood look like to you?’ They said, ‘No trash on the street.’ These are 5-year-olds. It’s really important for us as a police department to recognize what they define as a safe neighborhood.”

As the rain turned to drizzle, Wall looked out at the street. “We didn’t plan on rain. We planned on balloons and a bouncy ball for the kids. But we did it,” she said with a smile. “And we’re going to keep going.”

What explains the decline in shootings in Philadelphia?

U.S. Rep. Mary Gay Scanlon, who stared down the barrel of a carjacker’s gun in South Philadelphia in December 2021, warmly greeted Wall, Chittick and other Trinity Street residents. The Democrat, whose district includes Southwest Philadelphia and suburban communities, said she believes the millions of dollars the city has spent on gun violence programs during the pandemic, like Group Violence Intervention, are playing a major role in reducing shootings.

“We believe that the progress we’re seeing here in Philadelphia and Chester and other places goes beyond just ending the pandemic because we’re really focusing our resources on addressing these root causes,” she said. “We’re seeing more and more that there are things that are working and that we just need to fund them.”

Philadelphia City Council Speaker Kenyatta Johnson, whose district includes Kingsessing, came to present city citations to neighborhood leaders for helping keep their communities safe. Johnson, like Scanlon, touted the city’s financial investments as key to reducing shootings, as well as establishing better lines of communication between Mayor Cherelle Parker’s administration, police, city prosecutors and community groups.

“We need to redouble our efforts,” he said. “We want to make sure that the reductions we’re seeing continue.”

While some areas and sections of Philadelphia remain dangerous (nine people were shot, three fatally, at a West Philly block party on July 21; four men were fatally shot in four separate incidents on August 7), people whose lives and livelihoods require them to frequent high-crime areas said they felt a decrease in gunfire.

Andre Boyer, owner of Pennsylvania SITE State Agents, a private protection agency that employs 25 armed guards who protect gas stations, hotels, grocery stores and places of worship in the city, said incidents of armed robberies and other crimes are at record levels where his people are stationed.

“We’re seeing a lot less bad people. No crime, almost zero,” said Boyer, a former Philadelphia police officer.

He said the presence of his officers ensures the security of his clients’ properties, but added that he was not sure what explains the sharp citywide drop.

“Maybe people are listening and saying, ‘It’s not worth it to pick up a gun and shoot somebody.’ I can’t say it’s because of the programs the district attorney put in place or because of what the mayor is doing. Now, if we have the same numbers next year, I can say it’s because of what the system is doing,” he said. “Let’s wait and see what happens.”

Mensah Dean is the editor of The Trace. He was previously the editor of the Justice & Injustice team at The Philadelphia Inquirer, where he focused for five years on gun violence, corruption and crime in the public and private sectors. Mensah also covered criminal courts, public schools and city government for The Philadelphia Daily News, The Inquirer’s sister publication.

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Photo by Fibonacci Blue for Flickr.